Insights from Climate Week NYC: U.S. Natural Gas is the Ideal Energy Source of the World

U.S. natural gas can help us achieve our global climate goals and provide energy security for our allies

For years, Climate Week NYC has provided policymakers, government officials, and industry leaders with a platform to discuss effective solutions to decarbonize global emissions. Among over 100,000 estimated participants at Climate Week, the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) was at the forefront of these conversations, emphasizing the bipartisan and international consensus that natural gas plays a key role in the energy transition as a reliable low-carbon energy source.

The consensus coming out of Climate Week is clear – natural gas is essential to achieving the dual goals of energy security and reducing global emissions, by decreasing dependence on global coal and dirtier energy from Russia. One of the most effective ways to lower power sector and industrial emissions is to switch from coal to natural gas, especially in regions heavily reliant on coal. We've seen the results of this approach firsthand in the U.S, where 65% of the country’s power sector emissions reductions from 2005-2019 were achieved through coal-to-gas switching.

“It’s Never Been a More Important Time to Produce Energy”

PAGE kicked off Climate Week by sponsoring an Axios event, “A Conversation on Global Deployment of Energy Alternatives to Coal.” During the “View from the Top” discussion, Toby Z. Rice, President & CEO of EQT, emphasized how replacing foreign coal with U.S. natural gas is the best way to continue reducing worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but that there are barriers to delivering affordable and reliable energy for consumers. Among these challenges include a lack of natural gas infrastructure and the Department of Energy’s pause on liquified natural gas (LNG) export approvals, preventing the U.S. from delivering sufficient natural gas supplies to our allies overseas. His remarks echoed earlier points raised by Ali Zaidi, Assistant to the President and National Climate Advisor, who noted “it’s increasingly hard to get natural gas infrastructure built in the United States," due to a number of roadblocks.

The conversation about the benefits of U.S. natural gas continued throughout Climate Week and culminated in the presentation of a new independent report released by the Center on Regulation in Europe – “Securing Europe’s Net Zero Path and Flexible LNG.” The study confirmed the key role of LNG as a transitional fuel that can ensure Europe’s energy security and achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals. Notable speakers during the presentation included Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Director General for Energy of the European Commission, Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Energy Resources, and PAGE member Naomi Boness, Managing Director, Stanford Natural Gas and Stanford Hydrogen Initiatives, who highlighted the importance of cooperation among allies to ensure a reliable energy supply during times of heightened geopolitical instability.

In Europe, the absence of stable energy supplies has contributed to a volatile energy market, with electricity prices now 2-3 times higher than those in the U.S. according to the recent Draghi Report. As a consequence, several EU states are reopening once dormant coal plants to reduce energy costs. While there may be short-term economic benefits, this rise in coal-fired power generation can have disastrous climate impacts and not provide longer-term stability to energy markets in Europe and the rest of the world. In fact, if just 5% of the worst emitting coal-power plants switched to natural gas, global power sector emissions would be reduced by 30%. This would increase to nearly 50% if that switch incorporated carbon capture and storage.

From left to right: Geoffrey Pyatt, Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Toby Z. Rice

We Must Address the Elephant in the Room – Methane

Another important part of PAGE’s message at Climate Week focused on the need to address the elephant in the room – methane. The U.S. natural gas industry understands the critical role it must play in in reducing methane emissions and PAGE members have already taken significant steps to eliminate methane through investment and innovation. These efforts have helped establish U.S. natural gas as among the cleanest in the world.

As a result, U.S. methane emissions decreased by 23% from 2020 - 2022, with only an additional 7% decline needed by 2030 to meet the global methane pledge. By further reducing methane emissions across the natural gas value chain, we can continue to secure our allies’ energy in the cleanest way possible. Several House Democrats recently acknowledged this in a letter to President Biden, affirming that “American LNG is produced with some of the strongest environmental protections globally.”

The Bottom Line

As we navigate the complexities of the energy transition, U.S. natural gas stands alone as the most viable solution to reduce global GHG emissions and secure energy supplies. At Climate Week, this consensus was apparent among conversations with policymakers and industry experts, reflecting the pragmatic dialogue last year at COP28 that recognized natural gas as having a key role to play in meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

As we look towards the future, we need to capitalize on the opportunity we have before us. The U.S. has a responsibility to lead this movement towards a cleaner, more secure energy future with our abundant supply of natural gas.

Voters Overwhelmingly Supportive of Natural Gas. Democratic Candidates Can Take Advantage.

Others remain silent and risk missing out on a potent electoral issue and tool for quickly decarbonizing emissions.

With the 2024 U.S. elections just two months away, candidates have limited time to engage with voters and take a stance on several critical issues, including the direction of energy and climate policy.

While Democrats have largely avoided public support for natural gas this election cycle, the recent presidential debate hosted by ABC News reinforced the bipartisan backing of this vital American resource. During the debate, Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted her work to invest in a diversity of energy sources including increasing “domestic gas production to historic levels.” While her remarks indicate a growing understanding of where voters are on the issue, the evidence suggests that adopting a more outwardly supportive position on natural gas will help her develop inroads with a majority of voters in both parties.

As the election draws nearer, Harris and the Democratic party have an opportunity to unite voters by being vocal about opportunities to use U.S. natural gas as a proven and widely popular decarbonization tool in the energy transition.

Jumpstarted by the U.S. shale boom, natural gas has been a key factor in reducing domestic emissions over last several years, and was once again the largest driver behind U.S. energy sector emissions reductions in 2023. Meanwhile, it has also served as an economic and job-creation engine in states like Pennsylvania.

A recent nationwide poll conducted by Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) shows that voters overwhelmingly support natural gas. In fact, 69% of voters, including most Democrats, support increasing natural gas production.

“The path to victory is clear: voters support natural gas, and lawmakers who have heeded public opinion have overwhelmingly been successful in their elections.”

The poll found that voters are increasingly pragmatic about the energy transition and the role of cleaner fuel sources such as natural gas. 76% of voters and 80% of Democrats want the country to move steadily to clean energy, using all available options, including natural gas, to keep energy affordable and reliable.

A winning issue for politicians and the environment

This recent polling is not an anomaly. The last several years have also proven that supporting natural gas is a winner at the ballot box, particularly for Democrats.

Lawmakers who publicly back this position include Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), a proponent of natural gas production, who has claimed that "climate change is an existential threat, but we must transition in a way that preserves the union way of life for thousands of workers currently employed or supported by the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania and the communities where they live."

In 2022, Fetterman vocally supported natural gas and won a hotly-contested Senate seat in a year when Republicans expected to make significant legislative gains. Two years after prevailing in this election, Fetterman holds a net +7% approval rating, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

Besides Fetterman, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has found similar electoral success. Bennet, now a three-term Senator, believes "it's been very important for American liquified natural gas (LNG) to replace the natural gas Russia was sending to Europe." The results showed in the 2022 midterms, where Bennet secured his reelection by 14.6%.

In the House, Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) – also a strong proponent of exporting U.S. LNG to our allies overseas – represents one of the most competitive districts in the country. Nevertheless, Golden triumphed in 2020 despite Donald Trump winning the district by 11% that same year. And in 2022, Golden was reelected by 6.2%.

The Time to Champion Decarbonization is Now

The path to victory is clear: voters support natural gas, and lawmakers who have heeded public opinion have overwhelmingly been successful in their elections. By contrast, pursuing overly ambitious climate policies at the expense of proven solutions can have election consequences.

As we saw in Europe this summer, voters are willing to vote against policymakers who do not prioritize energy affordability, reliability, and security. As a result, pragmatic energy proponents made significant electoral gains across the EU's parliamentary elections.

The bottom line is that natural gas is an effective climate solution, and policymakers can openly support sensible energy policies to help them align with voters.

Shying away from natural gas could cost candidates support in November

Pursuing perfection at the expense of the good would derail the climate progress we’ve achieved over the last several years

Ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections, policymakers have only a few more months to make their case to the American people on how to address several critical issues, including the direction of energy and climate policy at the national level.

Over the past two decades, the U.S. has made significant progress in reducing carbon emissions with the help of U.S. natural gas, which accounts for a substantial portion of the decrease. Additionally, the Biden Administration and Congress have successfully implemented a range of policies over the last several years to tackle the nation’s CO2 emissions further.

Voters, including 80% of Democrats, want a steady transition to clean energy using all available resources.

However, rather than taking credit for these victories, some lawmakers have hesitated to voice their support for natural gas, fearing alienating voters and hurting their re-election chances. Ironically, for these policymakers, shying away from natural gas could do the reverse and hurt their re-election efforts.

According to a new nationwide poll conducted by Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE), 69% of voters, including most Democrats, support increasing natural gas production.

Backfiring Ambition

Pursuing perfection at the expense of the good could derail our climate goals and make it even more challenging to achieve the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. Climate-focused policymakers who fail to voice their support for affordable, reliable, and secure energy policies that include natural gas could face disappointing results at the ballot box in November. In fact, voters – including 80% of Democrats – want a steady transition to clean energy using all available resources according to the poll.

Policymakers encountered a similar scenario in 1993 when the Democratic-controlled House passed a large, broad-based BTU energy tax policy featuring then-President Clinton's high-profile public push. While the bill failed in the Senate, it nevertheless proved consequential in the 1994 mid-terms – Democrats lost 54 seats and control of the House.

More recently, Democrats pursued an overly ambitious cap-and-trade bill in 2010—the American Clean Energy and Security Act. The bill sought to impose a market-based system that would set a ceiling on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while allowing companies to trade permits to meet these requirements.

Much like the BTU tax, the cap-and-trade bill never made it through the Senate, mainly because an independent EIA study commissioned by Senate Democrats found that it would increase energy prices. This misfire provided campaign fodder for Republicans during the election cycle, and Democrats paid the price at the ballot box, losing a historic 63 House seats during the 2010 mid-terms.

Democrats still have time to support a popular solution responsible for a large portion of U.S. emissions reductions.

Lessons for 2024

With half the world's population holding elections in 2024, politicians would be wise to learn from the past and support a steady, pragmatic, clean energy transition using all available resources.

As we saw last month, the EU's Green Party faced significant losses in parliamentary elections. In contrast, opponents of highly restrictive EU climate policies saw substantial gains in countries including France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy.

These results indicate that policymakers were moving faster on climate initiatives, impacting affordability and reliability, than voters were comfortable with. These losses may result in a dramatic shift in EU climate policy in the foreseeable future.  

EP Elections: The Shape of the New Parliament

As U.S. policymakers look onward, they currently sit at a significant crossroads. They can either pursue overly ambitious climate policies that voters don't support or embrace a proven approach to tackling global emissions and ensure our energy security by supporting U.S. natural gas.  

Candidates still have time to support a popular solution responsible for a large portion of U.S. emissions reductions. However, the clock is ticking, and voters have shown little patience with politicians who fail to heed public opinion.  

New poll finds that nearly 70% of voters support increasing natural gas production

There is a broad consensus that voters want natural gas to be part of a steady transition to clean energy

Among a number of pressing issues, this November American voters will decide on the direction of energy and climate policy for years to come. Over the past three plus years, the Biden Administration and Congress have pursued a climate agenda that prioritized reducing emissions. Yet Democratic policymakers have shied away from publicly supporting the primary driver behind U.S. emissions reductions – natural gas – for fear of alienating voters.

The reality is voters across party lines overwhelmingly want natural gas to play a role in the energy transition. That’s what a new nationwide poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) found. Ahead of the upcoming election, climate-minded candidates would be wise to consider where voters stand on natural gas as an energy and climate solution.

The poll found that voters are increasingly pragmatic about the energy transition, as 76% of voters and 80% of Democrats want the country to steadily transition to clean energy by using all options currently available to keep energy affordable and reliable. The appeal of this approach is growing rapidly, with support for a steady transition climbing 11 percentage points today compared to 2022.

But what do Americans mean by a “steady” transition? The poll overwhelmingly shows that voters want the steady transition to feature natural gas.

Nearly 70% of voters are in favor of increasing natural gas production, including majorities of Democrats (59%) and Independents (63%).

Moderate Democratic support for increased production has progressed the most, with net support growing 10 percentage points since 2022. Natural gas, only slightly behind renewables, such as solar (84%) and wind energy (78%), is the top energy source voters want to see used more, with 67% in favor of increased usage.

Widespread support for natural gas also extends to exporting the fuel to our allies. More than half of all voters (58%) and Democrats (63%) say it’s important to support our allies by providing reliable energy exports of natural gas. In the same vein, there is net support (+12 overall / +13 Democrats) for increasing the exportation of American-produced natural gas to allied nations.

This support for natural gas is driven by reliability and affordability being top of mind for voters. Reducing energy costs is a top priority for a majority of voters across party lines, including 62% of moderate Democrats and 58% of Independents. Additionally, nearly 60% of voters believe that strengthening U.S. energy independence is vital for energy policy.

The results are clear: Democrats must be willing to meet voters where they are on climate solutions, which include natural gas. Recent history suggests that failing to balance emissions with affordability and reliability hurts Democrats at the polls. For example, Democrats suffered historic election losses following the unsuccessful cap-and-trade bill of 2010. It was nearly a decade following those votes before a majority of voters supported ambitious climate legislation.

By aligning with the majority of voters and advocating for reliable, affordable, and clean energy, our leaders can better position themselves to drive a successful long-term energy transition that reduces emissions, creates jobs, and strengthens the economy.